Keep it simple & follow some easy rules.
Actually, since so few investors r following these rules, I call them ''Secrets'':
Secret #1: Buy when the stock is moving up –
Don’t hold a stock when it’s moving sideways or going down.
I can hear u saying “I know THAT! Everybody knows that.”
Great, so if everybody knows that, why r only 5% of investors actually doing it?
The most popular stock trading strategy is to buy & hold a stock for a looooong time & strongly believe (or hope) that in the long run the stock market will go up. That is what I call the ''Showtime Rotisserie Strategy” ¬- Just set it & forget it.
Let’s take a look at an actual example: DELL Computer Corporation. Pull up a chart of DELL & try to follow me here. As u can see, the price of the stock was around $30 in the beginning of 2006. It went down as low as $20 & is currently trading at $23.78.
So let’s take a look at the performance of the ''Showtime Rotisserie Strategy” assuming a $10,000 account:
Bought 333 shares of DELL in January 2006 for $10,000.00
Current value of 333 shares of DELL at $23.78$ 7,918.74
Loss$ 2,081.26
That’s a loss of almost 21% (!!!).
Yet most financial advisors will support this belief by telling u that this is great strategy. They add some fancy words & call it “dollar cost averaging”.
Note:
”Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is an investing technique…. According to this technique, shares r purchased in a specific amount on a specified periodic basis (often monthly), regardless of current performance.” (Source: Wikipedia)
“Regardless of the current performance” – That’s interesting, isn’t it?
Let’s take a look at our example:
Let’s assume that now instead of investing $10,000 in the beginning of January 2006, u r investing $2,500 each quarter. Here’s the breakdown:
Bought 84 shares $29.75 on March 31st 2006 for$2,499.00
Bought 102 shares $24.46 on June 30th, 2006 for $2,494.92
Bought 109 shares $22.84 on September 30th, 2006 for $2,489.56
Bought 97 shares $25.71 on December 31st, 2006 for $2,493.87
Total Investment$9,977.35
Current Value of 392 shares $23.78$9,321.76
Loss$ 655.69
Wow, that’s much better, isn’t it? Now u “only” lost 6.5%!
Now let’s take a look at the chart again & apply our “secret:”
Buy when the stock is moving up –
Don’t hold a stock when it’s moving sideways or going down.
As u can see, we don’t want to own the stock for most of the year. With our trading strategy, we would have bought it in the beginning of October & just held it until end of December:
Bought 430 shares $23.25 on October 6th, 2006 for$ 9,997.50
Sold 430 shares $25.04 on Dec 29th, 2006 for$10,767.20
Profit$ 769.70
Let’s compare:
''Showtime Rotisserie Strategy”$ 2,081.26 Loss
Dollar Cost Averaging$ 655.69 Loss
Our “Secret” Strategy$ 769.70 Profit
As u can see, it is common sense to buy a stock only when it is going up, but only 5% of investors r actually doing it.
Why?
Bear with me, I’ll explain it to u in a couple of minutes.
But first let’s talk about
Secret #2: ALWAYS know when u exit–
Know when to exit with a loss, & when to exit with a profit
That’s where the rubber hits the road. Let me tell u this important concept:
Paper Profits r worth NOTHING!
What does that mean? – It means that ur profits only become profits when u actually SELL the stock & put the profits into ur bank account. As long as u still hold ur stocks, these profits r “unrealized profits” & can disappear within a few days.
Here’s an example:
Let’s say u were smart & applied secret #1 to GM (General Motors). You invested $10,000 in GM in May 2006 & bought 383 shares at $26.09.
In November 2006 u were a very happy camper: GM went up & ur shares r now worth $13,489.26! You knew (even without ur calculator) that u just made around 35% on ur initial investment of $10,000. You want to reward yourself & ordered this nice 60” Flat screen that they had on sale during the Thanksgiving weekend.
But then it happened: Bad news hit the wire & within 2 weeks GM shares fell 16%. Suddenly ur initial $10,000 investment was only worth $11,352, & instead of the 60” Flat screen u now had only money for the 42” version.
Bottom-line:
ALWAYS know when to exit! Paper profits r just that: Profit of Paper.
You should NOT expect to make 50% on a single trade. Here’s the secret that professional traders use: They realize small profits, & they do it frequently.
How do u make 25% profits per year? –
You make five times 5%!
So here’s the “secret” to trading riches:
1.Buy a stock
2.Hold it for a short period
3.Realize 5% profits
4.Do it again!
Ok, now u understood the concept of taking profits.
What about losses?
Same here: Get out quickly!
Don’t wait until the stock goes down 10%. 20%...30%.. 40%.
Get out when the stock goes down (Remember Secret #1) & wait until it goes up again.
Many investors like to apply a so-called “stop loss.” This stop loss can be expressed in dollar or as a percentage of the current price. As soon as the stock hits this stop, they sell.
As a rule of thumb u should use a stop loss of 2-5%, depending on ur risk tolerance & trading aggressiveness. But isn’t it better to get out with a small loss of 5% than seeing ur portfolio shrink by 20%.. 30%.. 40% (as in the example of DELL above)?
You bet it is!
Therefore ALWAYS know when to exit!
Secret #3: Pick the “right” stock
Aaaaahhhh, here we go!
Did u ever experience the following situation:
You picked a stock (e.g. INTC – Intel Corporation) & then the stock did not really move. And even worse: At the same time another stock that u wanted to buy (but didn’t) is shooting up like crazy.
Here’s an example:
Take a look at INTC (Intel) & at IBM. While INTC (“your” stock) is just hovering around 21, IBM really took off.
Now, here’s the problem:
Currently there r more than 10,000 stocks traded on US exchanges. So how can u pick the “right” stock; the one that’s going up?
For this task u have to apply some “filters”:
1.Only invest in stocks that r traded on a regular exchange (no “pink sheets”).
2.You should only invest in stocks that traded with at least 15,000,000 shares per week to avoid a manipulated market.
3.Don’t invest in “Penny Stocks” (less than $1.00 per share), unless u like gambling.
4.Make sure that the stock that u want to invest is in a nice up move (remember Secret #1).
Yes, I can hear u saying “That sound easy, but I know that it isn’t.”
Well, u think that it is difficult because most probably u used the wrong strategies. Or maybe u didn’t use any strategies at all, because u liked the idea of the ''Showtime Rotisserie Strategy” - Just set it & forget it :-)
Always keep these simple ''secrets'' in mind when u want to start trading, & do not let ''the other folks'' confuse you.
Hope that helps.